ISSN 1991-2927
 

ACP № 1 (59) 2020

Author: "Irina Aleksandrovna Moshkina"

Irina Aleksandrovna Moshkina, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Candidate of Science in Engineering; Associate Professor at the Department of Information Systems of Ulyanovsk State Technical University; graduated from the Faculty of Information Systems and Technologies of Ulyanovsk State Technical University; an author of articles in the field of intellectual analysis of time series. [e-mail: timina_i@mail.ru]I. Moshkina,

Evgenii Nikolaevich Egov, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, graduated from the Faculty of Information Systems and Technologies of Ulyanovsk State Technical University; Assistant at the Department of Information Systems at Ulyanovsk State Technical University; at author of articles in the field of data mining. [e-mail: e.egov@ulstu.ru]E. Egov

Project State Forecasting on Time Series of Metrics and on Detected Anomalies 56_8.pdf

The article deals with an example of the anomalies detection when analyzing the time series of metrics that characterize the project activity to adjust the project state forecasting. Project activity metrics are analyzed. A forecasting algorithm based on fuzzy tendency of time series metrics is developed and implemented. Authors suggest a procedure for detecting the time series anomaly based on entropy. A formula for computing the entropy measure for a fuzzy time series is proposed. The algorithm allows to take into account the dependence of the predicted values on the entropy measures. For forecasting, a hypothesis is used, which is formed for a given period on the basis of a trend. The results of the application of the proposed approach for forecasting the state of the project "FreeNAS9" are given.

Time series, software metrics, entropy, forecasting.

2019_ 2

Sections: Artificial intelligence

Subjects: Artificial intelligence, Information systems.



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